Best Time to Buy LEGO Sets — Seasonal Price Guide

The LEGO Price Calendar

LEGO set prices on the secondary market follow predictable seasonal cycles. Understanding these patterns can save you 15-30% on your purchases — not through luck, but through disciplined timing. Prices bottom out in January and peak in December, with distinct phases in between. The data is clear: when you buy matters almost as much as what you buy.

This guide combines ScoutLoot's real-time pricing data with historical patterns to give you an actionable buying calendar for 2026. Whether you're collecting retired sets or hunting deals on current themes, timing your purchases around these cycles will stretch your budget significantly.

January-February: Post-Holiday Deals

The weeks after Christmas are the single best buying window of the year. Unwanted gifts flood eBay and BrickOwl as recipients list sets they didn't want. At the same time, sellers clear holiday overstock, and collectors fund their next purchases by selling off duplicates. This creates a temporary oversupply that pushes prices 10-20% below normal levels.

The effect is strongest in the first two weeks of January and gradually fades by mid-February. Retired sets are particularly affected — many people receive sets as gifts without realising they've already been discontinued, so secondary market supply gets an unusual boost. If you've had your eye on a specific retired set, January is the time to buy.

Pro tip: set your ScoutLoot target price 15-20% below current market value in late December. When the January flood hits, you'll get alerted to the best deals before they're snapped up.

March-May: Spring Stability

Prices stabilise as holiday stock clears and the market finds its equilibrium. This is a neutral period — not the cheapest, but far from the most expensive. The interesting dynamic here is LEGO's spring release wave: new sets in March and April shift collector attention away from older themes.

When a new Technic supercar launches, the previous year's model drops 10-15% as the spotlight moves. The same applies to Creator Expert, City, and seasonal themes. If you're after last year's sets rather than the latest release, spring offers quiet opportunities that many collectors miss.

June-August: Summer Lull

Summer is an underrated buying season. Families spend on holidays and outdoor activities rather than LEGO, so overall demand on the secondary market drops. Sellers who need to move inventory lower their prices to attract the fewer active buyers.

The effect is most pronounced for large, expensive sets — UCS Star Wars models, Modular Buildings, and big Technic sets — where the price drop can easily reach 20-50 euros compared to autumn prices. Smaller sets under 50 euros are less affected since impulse buyers remain active year-round. If you're planning a major purchase, July and August offer the second-best window after January.

September-December: Holiday Premium

From September onwards, prices climb steadily as gift-buying season approaches. The curve steepens sharply in November and peaks in the first two weeks of December. Parents, grandparents, and last-minute shoppers drive demand to its annual maximum.

If you need to buy during this period, do it as early as possible. October prices are typically 15-25% lower than December prices for the same sets. Every week of lead time saves real money. By November, popular themes like Star Wars, Harry Potter, and seasonal winter sets command significant premiums. The worst possible time to buy is the week before Christmas — you'll pay top price and face shipping anxiety.

Best Day of the Week

Seasonal patterns get the most attention, but our data reveals an equally powerful weekly cycle. ScoutLoot's Deal Quality Scores show a consistent pattern across all marketplaces:

• Sunday: DQS 82.4 — the best day to buy. Weekend sellers list aggressively, pricing to sell quickly before the work week. Casual sellers who sorted through their collection on Saturday list on Sunday morning, often underpricing.
• Saturday: DQS 74.1 — second-best. Sellers who list on Saturday morning are often clearing out, and competition from buyers is lower than weekdays as many collectors are occupied.
• Monday-Thursday: DQS 60-68 — average territory. Steady activity, fair pricing, no particular advantage. Professional sellers dominate weekday listings and they know their pricing.
• Friday: DQS 50.1 — the worst day. Sellers price optimistically heading into the weekend, expecting higher weekend traffic to bring buyers willing to pay more. Hold off if you can wait two days.

The difference between Sunday (82.4) and Friday (50.1) is dramatic — over 30 DQS points. That translates to real money: on a 200 euro set, Sunday deals average 15-25% better value than Friday listings. Set your alerts and be ready to act on Sunday mornings.

2026 Key Dates

Several major sets are rumoured or confirmed for retirement in 2026. These represent the biggest investment and savings opportunities of the year:

January 2026

• Year of the Horse (40779) | 133 pieces | Seasonal

February 2026

• Bantha (6626051) | 64 pieces | Star Wars

March 2026

• Restaurants of the World: Japan (40906) | 289 pieces | Promotional
• {?} (40916) | 310 pieces | Botanicals
• {?} (40890) | 312 pieces | Seasonal
• Cherry Blossoms (40725) | 438 pieces | €14.99 RRP | Botanicals
• Sunflowers (40524) | 191 pieces | €14.99 RRP | Botanicals

May 2026

• Stranger Things: WSQK Radio Station (40891) | 234 pieces | Icons

June 2026

• Outlaw Forest Den (910057) | 2,618 pieces | €229.99 RRP | BrickLink
• The Art Factory (910054) | 2,256 pieces | €229.99 RRP | BrickLink
• Spike Prime Expansion Set (v2) (45681) | 604 pieces | €159.99 RRP | Education
• SPIKE Prime Set (45678) | 528 pieces | €514.99 RRP | Education
• SPIKE Essential Set (45345) | 442 pieces | €399.99 RRP | Education
• SPIKE Prime Element Set (2000457) | 374 pieces | Education
• Spike Prime Marketing Kit (2000456) | 150 pieces | Education
• Replacement Parts Pack (2000719) | 108 pieces | Education
• … static_and_more

July 2026

• Eiffel Tower (10307) | 10,001 pieces | €629.99 RRP | Icons
• Gringotts Wizarding Bank – Collectors' Edition (76417) | 4,809 pieces | €429.99 RRP | Harry Potter
• Ferrari Daytona SP3 (42143) | 3,778 pieces | €449.99 RRP | Technic
• Dungeons & Dragons: Red Dragon's Tale (21348) | 3,747 pieces | €359.99 RRP | Ideas
• PAC-MAN Arcade (10323) | 2,651 pieces | €269.99 RRP | Icons
• Great Deku Tree 2-in-1 (77092) | 2,500 pieces | €299.99 RRP | The Legend of Zelda
• The Temple Bounty (71848) | 2,387 pieces | €199.99 RRP | Ninjago
• Heartlake City Apartments and Stores (42670) | 2,040 pieces | €169.99 RRP | Friends
• … static_and_more

December 2026

• Millennium Falcon (75192) | 7,541 pieces | €849.99 RRP | Star Wars
• Venator-class Republic Attack Cruiser (75367) | 5,374 pieces | €649.99 RRP | Star Wars
• Window Exploration - 100 bags (2000409) | 4,900 pieces | €359.99 RRP | Serious Play
• Personalised Mosaic Portrait (40179) | 4,502 pieces | €79.99 RRP | Miscellaneous
• River Steamboat (21356) | 4,090 pieces | €329.99 RRP | Ideas
• Natural History Museum (10326) | 4,014 pieces | €299.99 RRP | Icons
• Jabba's Sail Barge (75397) | 3,946 pieces | €499.99 RRP | Star Wars
• The Botanical Garden (21353) | 3,792 pieces | €329.99 RRP | Ideas
• … static_and_more

July 2027

• Tropical Aquarium (10366) | 4,154 pieces | €449.99 RRP | Icons
• The Baratie Floating Restaurant (75640) | 3,398 pieces | €299.99 RRP | One Piece
• The Milky Way Galaxy (31212) | 3,091 pieces | €199.99 RRP | Art
• Shuttle Carrier Aircraft (10360) | 2,417 pieces | €229.99 RRP | Icons
• Volvo EC500 Hybrid Excavator (42215) | 2,359 pieces | €399.99 RRP | Technic
• Hogwarts Castle: The Main Tower (76454) | 2,135 pieces | €249.99 RRP | Harry Potter
• The Lord of the Rings: The Shire (10354) | 2,017 pieces | €269.99 RRP | Icons
• Twilight The Cullen House (21354) | 2,001 pieces | €219.99 RRP | Ideas
• … static_and_more

December 2027

• Venusaur, Charizard and Blastoise (72153) | 6,838 pieces | €649.99 RRP | Pokémon
• Lord of the Rings: Rivendell (10316) | 6,181 pieces | €499.99 RRP | Icons
• Hogwarts Castle (71043) | 6,020 pieces | €469.99 RRP | Harry Potter
• The Lord of the Rings: Barad-dûr (10333) | 5,478 pieces | €459.99 RRP | Icons
• Avengers Tower (76269) | 5,202 pieces | €499.99 RRP | Marvel Super Heroes
• The Old Town (71861) | 4,851 pieces | €299.99 RRP | Ninjago
• Notre-Dame de Paris (21061) | 4,383 pieces | €229.99 RRP | Architecture
• McLaren P1 (42172) | 3,893 pieces | €449.99 RRP | Technic
• … static_and_more

July 2028

• BMW M4 GT3 EVO (42226) | 747 pieces | €64.99 RRP | Technic
• Jeep Wrangler Rubicon (42227) | 723 pieces | €64.99 RRP | Technic

December 2028

• Titanic (10294) | 9,090 pieces | €679.99 RRP | Icons
• Death Star (75419) | 9,023 pieces | €999.99 RRP | Star Wars
• Home Alone (21330) | 3,955 pieces | €299.99 RRP | Ideas
• Star Trek: U.S.S. Enterprise NCC-1701-D (10356) | 3,600 pieces | €379.99 RRP | Icons
• Shopping Street (11371) | 3,456 pieces | €249.99 RRP | Icons
• Neuschwanstein Castle (21063) | 3,455 pieces | €269.99 RRP | Architecture
• Tudor Corner (10350) | 3,266 pieces | €229.99 RRP | Icons
• Claude Monet - Bridge over a Pond of Water Lilies (31220) | 3,179 pieces | €199.99 RRP | Art
• … static_and_more

December 2029

• Arctic Animals Science Kit (45203) | 1,134 pieces | €99.99 RRP | Education
• Mars Mission Science Kit (45202) | 933 pieces | €99.99 RRP | Education
• Moon Mission Science Kit (45200) | 519 pieces | €49.99 RRP | Education
• Antarctic Animals Science Kit (45201) | 461 pieces | €49.99 RRP | Education
• Science Kit Year 7-9 (45622) | 424 pieces | Education
• Replacement Pack for Middle School (45655) | 381 pieces | Education
• Replacement Pack for Elementary School (45654) | 350 pieces | Education
• Science Kit Year 4-6 (45621) | 336 pieces | Education
• … static_and_more

December 2030

• Bluey’s Family House (11203) | 382 pieces | €69.99 RRP | Bluey
• Computer Science & AI Kit Year 7-9 (45522) | 379 pieces | Education
• Computer Science & AI Kit Year 4-6 (45521) | 321 pieces | Education
• Computer Science & AI Kit Year 1-3 (45520) | 276 pieces | Education
• Computer Science & AI Replacement Pack for Year 7-9 (45547) | 244 pieces | Education
• Computer Science & AI Replacement Pack for Year 4-6 (45546) | 224 pieces | Education
• Computer Science & AI Replacement Pack for Year 1-3 (45545) | 201 pieces | Education
• Animal Vet Clinic (42696) | 150 pieces | €29.99 RRP | Friends
• … static_and_more

Strategy: Set watches NOW at 10-15% below retail. As retirement dates approach, prices will only go up. The best time to buy these sets is today — or during the January and summer dips outlined above.

For a complete list of confirmed and rumoured retirements, see our 2026 Retirement Guide.

Retirement Timing

The biggest price movements on the secondary market happen around set retirement. Understanding this six-month timeline lets you plan purchases and avoid overpaying:

• 6 months before retirement — last chance to buy at retail. Smart collectors stock up while LEGO Shop availability dwindles. Secondary market prices begin creeping upward but remain close to RRP.
• During retirement month — immediate 15-25% price jump. FOMO buying drives prices up sharply. This is usually the worst time to buy — panic pricing from both buyers and sellers creates an inefficient market.
• 3-6 months after retirement — the correction window. Collectors who hoarded stock begin selling. Prices often dip as the initial panic subsides and supply from stockpilers enters the market. This is a surprisingly good buying opportunity that many overlook.
• 1-2 years after retirement — the new normal. Supply steadily decreases as sealed sets get opened or absorbed into collections. Prices climb consistently from here. Every month you wait costs more.

The 3-6 month post-retirement window is the secret that experienced collectors exploit. While everyone else panics at retirement, patient buyers wait for the correction and buy at 10-20% below peak retirement prices.

Set Your Alerts Early

The best strategy combines everything above: identify the sets you want, understand where you are in the seasonal cycle, set an ambitious target price, and let ScoutLoot do the watching. Manual browsing means you'll miss Sunday morning deals that sell in minutes. Automated alerts mean you're always ready.

Set your target price 15-20% below current market value. With seasonal dips, weekly cycles, and the occasional motivated seller, prices will hit that target more often than you'd expect. The key is patience — and being ready to act instantly when your alert fires.

For more strategies on finding below-market deals, see our complete deal-finding guide.